Which U.S. wheat counties are most exposed to drought right now?
The U.S. Drought Exposure Monitor maps roughly 45 million planted wheat acres against the U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly severity map. The wheat view shows where the most wheat ground sits under active drought right now, and where conditions are headed — across both winter-wheat country in the Southern and Central Plains and spring-wheat country in the Northern Plains — refreshed every Thursday.
Where U.S. wheat is grown
Wheat is the third-largest U.S. row crop by planted area, but it is really two crops in one number. Winter wheat — planted in the fall and harvested early the next summer — is grown predominantly in the Southern and Central Plains: Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, and Nebraska. Spring wheat — planted in spring and harvested late summer — is concentrated further north, in North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Together they cover roughly 45 million planted acres each year. Washington and the Pacific Northwest contribute soft white wheat and other classes.
That split matters for drought analysis. Winter wheat in the Southern Plains carries the highest single-region drought risk in the U.S. wheat complex — a Kansas–Oklahoma–Texas dry-down in late winter or spring is the classic "wheat-in-drought" headline. Spring-wheat exposure tracks Northern Plains summer drought instead. The Monitor surfaces both on the same wheat tab, but the regional patterns rarely line up at the same time.
How the wheat view works
The headline view shows planted wheat acres as columns colored by current U.S. Drought Monitor severity — hard data only, with no insurance assumptions. The watch list ranks counties by drought-weighted planted acres: planted acres multiplied by severity. A "Forecast Drought" view nudges current conditions by NOAA CPC's Seasonal Drought Outlook to show where the next three months point, and a "vs Last Year" view tracks the change in severity year over year.
Insurance is more nuanced for wheat than for the row crops, which is why the Monitor keeps it as context rather than building it into the drought reading. A large share of grazing-capable wheat acreage is insured as forage rather than grain. Under the dual-use practice common in the Southern Plains, winter wheat is grazed by cattle over the winter and then either harvested for grain or grazed out entirely, and that ground is often covered by Annual Forage or Pasture, Rangeland and Forage policies instead of a grain policy. A grain-only coverage figure therefore understates how much wheat ground is actually insured against drought — a county can look lightly covered on grain while being heavily covered through forage. The Monitor shows the full per-county footprint across all federal programs, with crop-insurance acres, grazing and forage acres, and rangeland listed separately and never summed, since a single field can carry more than one policy.
One caveat about the wheat view: USDA NASS does not publish durum wheat at the county level under its standard series, so durum is excluded. Durum represents roughly 3% of U.S. wheat, concentrated in North Dakota and Montana. Most of the rest of the wheat picture — hard red winter, hard red spring, soft red winter, soft white, and other classes — is present.
The inputs are the same the rest of the tool uses: planted acres from USDA NASS, current drought severity from the U.S. Drought Monitor, the NOAA CPC outlook for the forecast view, and insurance context from USDA RMA's Summary of Business.
Data sources for wheat drought exposure
Every input behind the wheat view is public, free, and refreshed on a known cadence:
| Source | What it provides | Refresh |
|---|---|---|
| USDA NASS | Planted wheat acres by county (winter, spring, and other classes; durum excluded) | Annual + intra-year revisions |
| USDA RMA Summary of Business | Per-county insurance context across all federal programs — crop insurance, grazing/forage, and rangeland shown separately | Monthly mid-year + crop-year close |
| U.S. Drought Monitor | Current drought severity (D0–D4) by county | Weekly, Thursdays |
| NOAA CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook | 90-day forward outlook — development, persistence, improvement, removal | Monthly |
Frequently asked questions
Which U.S. states grow the most wheat?
Kansas leads the country in winter-wheat acreage, followed by Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, and Nebraska. The leading spring-wheat states are North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Washington and the Pacific Northwest are also significant wheat producers, with both soft white wheat and a mix of other classes.
Does a grain-insurance figure capture how much wheat is insured against drought?
Not on its own. A large share of grazing-capable wheat acreage is insured as forage rather than grain. Under the dual-use practice common in the Southern Plains, winter wheat is grazed by cattle over the winter and then either harvested for grain or grazed out entirely, and that ground is often covered by Annual Forage or Pasture, Rangeland and Forage policies instead of a grain policy. A grain-only coverage figure therefore understates true insurance against drought. The Monitor shows federal crop insurance as honest per-county context across all programs — crop insurance, grazing and forage, and rangeland listed separately and never summed.
Why is winter wheat especially drought-exposed in the U.S. Plains?
Winter wheat is planted in the Southern and Central Plains, where dryland farming is the rule and irrigation is the exception. A dry fall, dry winter, and dry spring stack on top of each other before harvest. When the U.S. Drought Monitor flags D2 or higher severity in Kansas, Oklahoma, or Texas wheat country, large blocks of acreage move into the high-exposure list quickly.
Does the wheat view include durum wheat?
No. USDA NASS does not publish planted durum acres at the county level under its standard series, so durum is excluded from the wheat view. Durum represents roughly 3% of U.S. wheat, concentrated in North Dakota and Montana. The remainder of the wheat picture — winter wheat, hard red spring, soft red winter, soft white, and other classes — is included.
Other crops
Each crop has its own geography, its own planted footprint, and its own drought-stress window — so the watch list for one rarely lines up with another.