Which U.S. cotton counties are most exposed to drought right now?
The U.S. Drought Exposure Monitor maps roughly 10 million planted cotton acres against the U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly severity map. With more than half the national cotton crop grown in Texas, the cotton view is weighted heavily toward Plains drought — showing where the most cotton ground sits under active drought right now, and where conditions are headed — refreshed every Thursday.
Where U.S. cotton is grown
Cotton is concentrated more heavily in a single state than any other major U.S. row crop. Texas alone grows roughly half of the national crop — the Texas High Plains around Lubbock is the single largest cotton-producing region in the country. The remainder of the U.S. cotton picture is split across the Southeast — Georgia, North Carolina, Alabama, South Carolina — and the Mid-South — Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Tennessee, Louisiana — with smaller acreage in Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Far West.
That Texas concentration is why cotton drought analysis is largely Texas drought analysis. A Texas High Plains drought year can pull the entire U.S. cotton crop down even when conditions elsewhere are favorable. The Monitor shows this directly on the cotton tab: when D2 or higher drought sits over the High Plains, those counties' drought-weighted cotton acres dominate the national watch list.
How the cotton view works
The headline view shows planted cotton acres as columns colored by current U.S. Drought Monitor severity — hard data only, with no insurance assumptions. The watch list ranks counties by drought-weighted planted acres: planted acres multiplied by severity. A "Forecast Drought" view nudges current conditions by NOAA CPC's Seasonal Drought Outlook to show where the next three months point, and a "vs Last Year" view tracks the change in severity year over year.
Cotton is widely insured in the dryland Texas High Plains, where drought risk is structurally baked into the local economy, and participation is more variable in the irrigated Southeast and Mid-South — so insurance is steady where most of the crop is. The Monitor keeps it as per-county context rather than building it into the drought reading, showing the footprint across all federal programs with crop-insurance acres, grazing and forage acres, and rangeland listed separately and never summed, since a single field can carry more than one policy.
One data caveat: USDA NASS sometimes publishes current-year cotton county data later than corn and soybean county data. When that happens, the Monitor's cotton view falls back to a state-level estimate scaled by the county's three-year share of state cotton acreage, then promotes to county actuals when NASS publishes them.
The inputs are the same the rest of the tool uses: planted acres from USDA NASS, current drought severity from the U.S. Drought Monitor, the NOAA CPC outlook for the forecast view, and insurance context from USDA RMA's Summary of Business.
Data sources for cotton drought exposure
Every input behind the cotton view is public, free, and refreshed on a known cadence:
| Source | What it provides | Refresh |
|---|---|---|
| USDA NASS | Planted cotton acres by county, with three-tier waterfall for current-year coverage | Annual + intra-year revisions |
| USDA RMA Summary of Business | Per-county insurance context across all federal programs — crop insurance, grazing/forage, and rangeland shown separately | Monthly mid-year + crop-year close |
| U.S. Drought Monitor | Current drought severity (D0–D4) by county | Weekly, Thursdays |
| NOAA CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook | 90-day forward outlook — development, persistence, improvement, removal | Monthly |
Frequently asked questions
Which U.S. states grow the most cotton?
Texas grows roughly half the U.S. cotton crop on its own, with the Texas High Plains around Lubbock the single largest production region. The remaining acreage is split between the Southeast — Georgia, North Carolina, Alabama, and South Carolina — and the Mid-South — Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Louisiana. Smaller acreage shows up in Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Far West.
Does the cotton view account for federal crop insurance?
The drought view is built on hard data only — planted cotton acres from USDA NASS and current severity from the U.S. Drought Monitor — with no insurance assumptions. Federal crop insurance appears separately as per-county context from USDA RMA's Summary of Business. Cotton is widely insured in the dryland Texas High Plains, where drought risk is structurally baked into the local economy, and participation varies more in the irrigated Southeast and Mid-South. The Monitor shows that footprint alongside the drought picture rather than folding it into the drought reading.
Why is U.S. cotton drought exposure dominated by Texas?
Texas alone grows roughly half of the national cotton crop. The Texas High Plains is dryland cotton country — irrigation is limited, and rainfall during the growing season drives the yield. When the U.S. Drought Monitor flags D2 or higher severity over the High Plains, the national cotton balance sheet moves with it. Drought elsewhere in the cotton belt can be material, but rarely dominant in the way Texas High Plains drought is.
Where is U.S. cotton most at risk from drought this week?
It changes weekly. The Monitor reorders its cotton watch list every Thursday after the U.S. Drought Monitor publishes. Historically the Texas High Plains, the Texas Rolling Plains, and parts of southwestern Oklahoma draw the most exposure when summer drought develops. The current week's view is on the live tool.
Other crops
Each crop has its own geography, its own planted footprint, and its own drought-stress window — so the watch list for one rarely lines up with another.